Sherwin-Williams (SHW) investment Quality Rating (AA)

(AA) | Materials | Chemicals (Coatings)
By: Old York Financial
A Private Principal Research Report

the verdict

Old York Financial has assigned Sherwin-Williams (SHW) an Operational Quality (AA) Rating. Sherwin-Williams is the "Sovereign of Surfaces." In 2025, the company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $4.7 Billion (20% margin). It earns a (AA) because of its unmatched pricing power, raising prices 5% in January 2025 while maintaining 70% of the U.S. architectural paint market. For the Principal, SHW is a "Cash Compounding Machine." It returned $2.4 Billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and the buyback of 4.8 million shares. The only thing preventing a (AAA) is the 9.2x Debt-to-Equity ratio, which, while manageable for a retail monopoly, adds "Financial Friction" during high-rate cycles.

the old york analysis

owner earnings: the store-front cash flow We look at how much cash the "Paint Store" actually drops into the Principal's pocket after maintaining the buildings and the fleet.

• 2025 Operating Cash Flow: $3.45 Billion

• (-) Capital Expenditures: ($0.85 Billion) (Includes new HQ and R&D centers)

• (+) Depreciation & Amortization: $0.62 Billion (Estimated)

• OLD YORK OWNER EARNINGS: $3.22 Billion

Analyst Note: The Free Cash Flow of $2.6 Billion is remarkably high-quality. Sherwin-Williams converts nearly 100% of its Net Income into cash. Unlike its peers, SHW doesn't have "Clogged Pipes" in inventory; their company-owned stores allow them to flush product through the system with surgical precision.

operational efficiency

• 5-Year ROIC (Avg): 14.23%

• 5-Year EPS CAGR: 5.14%

• 5-Year Price CAGR: 7.34%

• Share Change (5Y): -6.88%

• Analyst Note (The Leverage Multiplier): A 75% ROE is world-class. It is achieved through a "DuPont Triple Threat": high net margins, high asset turnover, and a 5.8x Equity Multiplier. The machine is lean and highly geared for shareholder return.

growth & market dominance

• 2025 Consolidated Revenue: $23.57 Billion (+2.1% YoY).

• Professional Moat: 63% of U.S. paint volume is now "Pro," a secular shift from DIY that benefits SHW’s high-touch service model.

• The Suvinil Catalyst: The acquisition of Brazil’s leading brand added $164 Million in Q4 alone, giving the Principal a "South American Engine" for 2026.

• Pricing Power: Successfully implemented price increases in a "Down Market," proving that the "Sherwin Label" is non-negotiable for contractors.

the fortress check

• Total Assets: $25.8 Billion.

• Cash on Hand: $207 Million (They keep it lean; they "Do Not Hold Cash").

• Total Debt: $9.3 Billion.

• Capital Allocation: Increased the dividend for the 47th consecutive year ($0.80/quarter).

• Shareholder Return: Returned $2.4 Billion to the Principal in 2025. With 29.6 million shares remaining on the authorization, the buyback "Exhaust" will continue to boost EPS in 2026.

final determination

Rating: Old York Operational Quality (AA)

Classification: The Retail Monolith.

Sherwin-Williams is a (AA) because it owns the customer relationship. While the 11% Net Margin is solid, the true strength is the 15% ROIC in a low-growth industry. It is a "Compounder" that stays at (AA) until the debt load (post-HQ construction) settles back toward historical norms.

Disclaimer: Old York Financial operates privately as a principal and sells corporate advisory. Old York Financial is not an accountant, a financial advisor, a broker, an agent, a lawyer, or a portfolio manager. This report is for informational purposes only.