CME Group (CME) receives Old York Operational Quality (AAA) Rating for fiscal year 2025
(AAA) | Financial | Market Infrastructure
By: Old York Financial
A Private Principal Research Report
the verdict
Old York Financial has assigned CME Group (CME) an Operational Quality (AAA) Rating. CME Group is the textbook definition of a Sovereign-tier monopoly. In 2025, the firm achieved its fourth consecutive year of record results, with revenue climbing to $6.5 Billion. With an adjusted operating margin of 69.4%, it is one of the most profitable enterprises on the planet. Unlike Deutsche Börse (AA), CME’s business is purely capital-light, allowing it to return nearly 100% of its earnings to shareholders while maintaining a fortress balance sheet.
the old york analysis
owner earnings: the pure toll CME is remarkably clean. it does not engage in the heavy "acquisition-and-amortize" cycle of its peers, Reported Net Income is a near-perfect proxy for Owner Earnings.
2025 Reported Net Income: $4.02 Billion
(+) Depreciation & Amortization: ~$230 Million
(–) Maintenance CapEx: (~$90 Million)
= OLD YORK OWNER EARNINGS: $4.16 Billion
Analyst Note: The company returned $3.9 Billion to shareholders in 2025 through its unique variable dividend policy. This is the hallmark of a Sovereign (AAA): a business that requires almost zero retained earnings to grow, allowing the Principal to pull out nearly every dollar of profit.
growth & market dominance
Net Revenue (2025): $6.5 Billion (Record).
Adjusted Operating Margin: 69.4%.
Average Daily Volume (ADV): 28.1 Million contracts (Record).
Analyst Note: CME is currently benefiting from the "Risk-Always-On" environment of 2026. As global interest rates remain volatile and the U.S. Treasury clearing mandate takes effect later this year, CME's "Clearing Monopoly" is expanding its territory.
operational efficiency
ROIC (Return on Invested Capital): 11.8% (Accounting-based) / ~35%+ (Tangible).
Old York Standard: While the "Invested Capital" on the balance sheet is bloated by $17 Billion in "Intangible Assets" from the 2007-2008 mergers (CME/CBOT/NYMEX), the Tangible ROIC is astronomical.
Analyst Note: Because the "moat" was bought decades ago, the current cash-on-cash return for every new dollar of capital spent is likely north of 50%.
the fortress check
Pricing Power: ABSOLUTE. If you want to hedge the US Federal Funds Rate or trade WTI Oil futures with global liquidity, you do it at the CME. There is no "second best" liquidity pool.
Capital Intensity: NEAR-ZERO. CME is a digital matching engine. It spent only $18M in CapEx in Q3 2025 to generate $1.1B in EBITDA.
Solvency: Net Debt / EBITDA is -0.24x (Net Cash position). CME carries $4.6 Billion in cash against only $3.4 Billion in debt. It is financially bulletproof.
final determination
Rating: Old York Quality (AAA)
Classification: The Sovereign Global Toll Bridge. CME Group is the highest-quality exchange in the Registry. It lacks the capital-heavy banking drag of Deutsche Börse and the integration risk of ICE. It is a pure-play on global financial activity. For an investor, this is "Gold", a business that grows with global volatility, pays out all profits, and carries no net debt.
Disclaimer: Old York Financial operates privately as a principal and sells corporate advisory. Old York Financial is not an accountant, a financial advisor, a broker, an agent, a lawyer, or a portfolio manager. This report is for informational purposes only.
